Can Finding Dory Fend Off Tarzan & BFG at the Box Office?

Pixar’sFinding Doryhelped resuscitate a sagging summerbox officeearlier this month, with a record-breaking $135 million, the highest debut ever for an animated movie. The sequel easily took downIndependence Day: Resurgence,The ShallowsandFree State of Jonesin its second weekend, but it faces some much stiffer competition heading into the extended holiday. Disney’sThe BFG, Warner Bros.‘The Legend of Tarzanand Universal’sThe Purge: Election Yearall debut this Friday. While it will likely be fairly close,Finding Doryis expected to hold onto its crown for a third weekend in a row, with $38.7 million.

If this prediction holds true, it will represent a 53.5% drop forFinding Doryin its third weekend, and push it past $300 million domestic. While $38.7 million isn’t a terribly high figure for a winning summer weekend, none of the three new releases have been tracking very high with box office pundits.Box Office Mojoreports thatThe Legend of Tarzanwill open in approximately 3,450 theaters, followed byThe BFGin 3,200 theaters andThe Purge: Election Yearin 2,700 theaters. As of now,The BFGis the only movie to have enough reviews for a Rotten Tomatoes rating, with a solid 71% Fresh, but we’ll find out later this week what the critics think ofThe Legend of TarzanandThe Purge: Election Year. We’re predicting thatThe BFGtakes second place with an estimated $35.4 million.

The talents of three of the world’s greatest storytellers -Roald Dahl,Walt DisneyandSteven Spielberg- finally come together to bringThe BFGto life. Directed by the three-time Academy Award winner from a screenplay byMelissa Mathisonbased on the best-selling book byDahl,The BFGtells the imaginative story of a young girl and the Giant who introduces her to the wonders and perils of Giant Country and stars three-time Tony Award, two-time Olivier Award and Oscar winnerMark Rylance, newcomerRuby Barnhill,Penelope Wilton,Jemaine Clement,Rebecca Hall,Rafe SpallandBill Hader. The film is produced bySpielberg,Frank MarshallandSam MercerwithKathleen Kennedy,John Madden,Kristie Macosko Krieger,Michael Siegel,Frank SmithandNaia Cucukovserving as executive producers.Independence Day: Resurgencewill likely drop to third place with $20.1 million, followed byThe Purge: Anarchy$18.6 million andThe Legend of Tarzanrounding out the top 5 with $14.5 million.

Expanding the universe introduced in the hit franchise that electrified the culture and earned $200 million at the worldwide box office, Universal Pictures’The Purge: Election Yearreveals the next terrifying chapter that occurs over 12 hours of annual lawlessness sanctioned by the New Founders of America to keep this country great. It’s been two years since Leo Barnes (Frank Grillo) stopped himself from a regrettable act of revenge on Purge Night. Now serving as head of security for Senator Charlie Roan (Elizabeth Mitchell), his mission is to protect her in a run for president and survive the annual ritual that targets the poor and innocent. But when a betrayal forces them onto the streets of D.C. on the one night when no help is available, they must stay alive until dawn…or both be sacrificed for their sins against the state.

The Legend of Tarzanis set years since the man once known as Tarzan (Alexander Skarsgård) left the jungles of Africa behind for a gentrified life as John Clayton III, Lord Greystoke, with his beloved wife, Jane (Margot Robbie) at his side. Now, he has been invited back to the Congo to serve as a trade emissary of Parliament, unaware that he is a pawn in a deadly convergence of greed and revenge, masterminded by the Belgian, Captain Leon Rom (Christoph Waltz). But those behind the murderous plot have no idea what they are about to unleash.

Rounding out the top 10 this weekend will likely beCentral Intelligence($9.4 million),The Shallows($8.8 million),Free State of Jones($4.1 million),The Conjuring 2($3.9 million) andNow You See Me 2($2.4 million). Also opening in limited release is Music Box Films’ dramaThe Innocents, The Orchard’s documentaryLife, Animated, Roadside Attractions' dramaOur Kind of Traitorand Magnolia’s horror filmSatanic. We don’t know for sure if there are plans for any of these limited releases to expand in the weeks and months ahead, so stay tuned.

Looking ahead to next weekend, the 20th Century Fox comedyMike and Dave Need Wedding Datesand Universal’s animated comedyThe Secret Life of Petsopen in wide release. Debuting in limited release is Bleecker Street’sCaptain Fantastic, Saban Films’Cell, Well Go USA’sCold War 2, ESX Entertainment’sThe Dog Lover, Independent’sFathers and Daughters, Sony Classics’Our Little Sister, Magnolia’sZero Daysand Music Box Films’Norman Lear: Just Another Version of You. Be sure to check back on Sunday for the box office estimates, but until then, check out our projected top 10 for the weekend of July 1.