The first weekend in December is often one that falls through the cracks, and last weekend’s winner, Disney Pixar’sCoco, looks to take full advantage of that. This frame is often forgotten, since it falls between theThanksgiving holiday weekendand either the prestige Oscar candidates or the final big-budget blockbusters that arrive over the holiday season, and this year is no different, with no movies opening in wide release, although there are a slew of movies arriving in limited release, such as Parade Deck Films’Another WolfCop, Epic Pictures’Badsville, Well Go USA’sBrotherhood of Blades 2, Hannover House’sDaisy Winters, A24 Films’The Disaster Artist, Cinedigm Entertainment’sGangster Land, Zorya Films’Inoperable, the independentKepler’s Dream, Fox Searchlight’sThe Shape of Water, Vertical Entertainment’sSlumber, Well Go USA’sThe Swindlers, IFC’sTribes of Palos Verdesand Amazon Studios’Wonder Wheel. With no wide release contenders,Cocoshould have no trouble winning this weekend with $30.2 million.
This year has been quite an interesting one for animated movies, which had at one point been seen as sure fire box office gold, since they have elements that appeal to the whole family, but that hasn’t exactly been the case this year. So far, onlyDespicable Me 3has cracked the top 10 at the domestic box office for the year, a far cry from just last year, when there were four animated movies in the top 10,Finding Dory,The Secret Life of Pets,ZootopiaandSing. This year there are also two R-rated movies in the top 10 (ITandLogan), a slight increase from one (Deadpool) last year. While there have been some animated hits just outside the top 10 likeThe Boss BabyandThe LEGO Batman Movie, there have also been several high-profile animated movies likeThe Emoji Movie,Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie,The LEGO Ninjago Movie,Smurfs: The Lost Village,Leap!andMy Little Pony: The Movieseverely underperforming this year, but that doesn’t seem to be the cast withPixar’s Coco.
Coco’s $50.8 million debut was the third best all year, behindDespicable Me 3($72.4 million) andThe LEGO Batman Movie($53 milion), and the movie has already set abox office record in Mexico, where it opened just before the actual Day of the Dead, becoming the highest-grossing movie in Mexican box office history, breaking the five-year record set by Marvel’sThe Avengers. As of now, it has earned $82.3 million internationally for a worldwide total of $155.2 million, from an unspecified production budget. We’re predicting thatCocostays put atop the box office with $30.2 million, and this lack of newcomers will also benefit the remaining holdovers as well, since, barring a rather miraculous showing from any of the limited release titles, the top 10 should essentially stay intact this weekend.
The top 10 will likely includeJustice League($21.6 million),Wonder($13.6 million),Thor: Ragnarok$9.1 million),Daddy’s Home 2($6.3 million),Murder on the Orient Express$6 million)The Star($3.9 million),A Bad Moms Christmas($2.8 million),Roman J. Israel, Esq.($2.3 million) andThree Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri($2 million). Of this crop of newcomers in limited release, the three that could have a shot at cracking the top 10 with an astounding limited release debut are A24 Films’The Disaster Artist, Fox Searchlight’sThe Shape of Waterand Amazon Studios’Wonder Wheel. Director Guillermo del Toro’scritically-acclaimed The Shape of Waterand director/star James Franco’sThe Disaster Artistare both critical hits, with 98% and 96% respectively on Rotten Tomatoes, whileWonder Wheelhas a mixed reception with 52%.
Looking ahead to next weekend, only Broad Green Pictures' action comedyJust Getting Startedwill debuted in wide release, and whileThe Disaster Artistwill also be expanding nationwide, it isn’t clear how significant the expansion will be yet. Also opening in limited release that date is Neon’s highly-anticipatedI, Tonya starring Margot Robbie, Vertical Entertainment’sHollow in the Landstarring Dianna Agron and Rachelle Lefevre and another Vertical film,November Criminals, starring Ansel Elgort and Chloe Moretz. Take a look at our top 10 projections for the weekend of December 1, and check back on Sunday for the box office estimates.
