Will Happy Death Day Behead Blade Runner at the Box Office?

It seems thatBlade Runner 2049couldn’t continue the fall hot streak at the box office. Last month, it seemed that the slumping summer months were cured byIT’s record breaking opening weekend, and while that has gone on to become the highest-grossing horror movie of all time, and one of this year’s highest-grossing movies, it seemed to be just a temporary solution to the industry’s box office woes. Last weekend, the highly-anticipatedBlade Runner 2049underperformed and opened with just $32.7 million, just one fifth of its $150 million budget, signalling that studios may be in for a tough month until Marvel’sThor: Ragnarokhits theaters in November. Four new movies hit theaters this weekend, and while we’re projecting thatBlade Runner 2049will come out on top with a repeat win, the race will likely be a lot closer than it should have been.

Blade Runner 2049goes up against four new movies this weekend, Universal’s low-budget horror-thrillerHappy Death Day, STX Entertainment’sThe Foreigner, Open Road Films' biopicMarshalland Annapurna Pictures' biopicProfessor Marston and the Wonder Women. As of now, bothThe ForeignerandProfessor Marston and the Wonder Women reviewshave been strong, withThe Foreignerposting an 80% score on Rotten Tomatoes andProfessor Marston and the Wonder Womenposting an 85% score, but there are not enough reviews in forHappy Death DayandMarshallquite yet.Happy Death Dayis estimated to open in roughly 3,000 theaters, withThe Foreignerarriving in 2,300 theaters,Marshalldebuting in just 800 theaters and no theater count estimate given forProfessor Marston and the Wonder Womenyet. With all of that being said, we’re predicting thatBlade Runner 2049will repeat atop the box office with just $18.6 million.

Given the strongcritical performance from Blade Runner 2049, it’s possible thatBlade Runner 2049may have more endurance at the box office, but we’re projecting thatHappy Death Daywill come in a close second place with $17.4 million, withThe Foreignerdebuting in third place with $12.6 million and the top 5 rounded out byProfessor Marston & the Wonder Women($6.2 million) andMarshall($5.2 million). The top 10 will be rounded out byThe Mountain Between Us($4.9 million),IT($4.7 million),My Little Pony: The Movie($4.1 million),Kingsman: The Golden Circle($3.9 million) andAmerican Made($3.7 million).

Happy Death Daycenters on Tree Gelbman (Jessica Rothe), a blissfully self-centered collegian who wakes up on her birthday in the bed of a student named Carter. As the morning goes on, Tree gets the eerie feeling that she’s experienced the events of this day before. When a masked killer suddenly takes her life in a brutal attack, she once again magically wakes up in Carter’s dorm room unharmed. Now, the frightened young woman must relive the same day over and over until she figures out who murdered her. Thismillennial slasher moviehas been called theGroundhog Day of horror movies, although it will remain to be seen if it will catch on with audiences.

Also opening in limited release this weekend is IFC’s78/52: Hitchcock’s Shower Scene, Bleecker Street’sBreathe, Matson Films’The Departure, Fox Serchlight’sGoodbye Christopher Robin, Indican’sThe Lucky Man, Parade Deck Films’Man From Earth: Holocene, Vertical Entertainment’sThe Secret Scripture, Freestyle Releasing’sSwing Awayand Super LTD’sWASTED! The Story of Food Waste. There is no indication whether or not any of these films will expand to a nationwide release later this month, but that may not be the greatest idea this month. Over the next three frames, including this weekend, there will be a whopping 13 new movies released in theaters, none of which look to break out as a massive box office hit.

After the four movies that arrive in theaters this weekend, there will be five more movies opening in theaters on October 20, Warner Bros.‘Geostorm, Sony Pictures’Only the Brave, Universal’sThe Snowman, Lionsgate’sBoo 2! A Madea Halloweenand PureFlix’sSame Kind of Different as Me. Then the weekend after, on October 27, there are four more new movies, Lionsgate’s return to theSawfranchise withJigsaw, Universal’sThank You For Your Service, Paramount’sSuburbiconand Open Road Films’All I See Is You. Take a look at our box office projections for the weekend of October 13, and check back Sunday for the top 10 estimates fromBox Office Mojo.